Tornadoes devastate central US as threat of historic flooding ramps up

Areas from Arkansas to Kentucky could record historic amounts of rain this week that trigger once-in-a-generation flooding. Flooding has already begun in some areas, but it’s expected to get much worse through Saturday.

Some of the predicted rainfall amounts are so off the charts, forecasters need another way to put them into perspective. That’s when you start to hear about 1-in-25-year or 1-in-100-year or even 1-in-1000-year rainfall events.

But the terminology is still a little confusing because a 1-in-100-year event isn’t guaranteed to happen only once in a century. It can happen twice in a decade or even a week.

That’s because it’s a measure of probability, not frequency.

A 1-in-100-year event has a 1% chance of occurring in a year. A 1-in-25-year event has a 4% chance, a 1-in-1000-year event has a 0.1% chance and so on.

Memphis, Tennessee, is one area that could have anywhere from a 1-in-100-year to 1-in-500-year event this week. The city picked up more than 2.5 inches of rain on Wednesday and could get an additional 8 to 10 inches through Saturday. A little over 10 inches of rain in four days would be a 1-in-100-year event while a foot would raise it to a 1-in-500-year event.

To the north, Paducah, Kentucky, could also record a foot of rain by Saturday, which would be a 1-in-1000-year event for that city.

Statistically, these types of heavy rain events should not be happening as frequently as they are, but climate change is skewing the odds by making intense rainfall more likely. Climate change has intensified hourly rainfall rates in nearly 90% of large US cities since 1970, a recent study found.

Two more deaths from the overnight severe weather outbreak were confirmed Thursday morning by authorities in Tennessee who warned the toll there could continue to rise.

A storm death was reported in Carroll County – about 100 miles west of Nashville – by the state Department of Health, Tennessee Emergency Management spokesperson Kristin Coulter told CNN. A second death from an overnight reported tornado was confirmed in Fayette County by the county’s sheriff’s office.

A house trailer outside of the Moscow community in Fayette County – about 45 miles east of Memphis – was overturned by a tornado early Thursday morning, Chief Deputy Raymond Garcia said. A 48-year-old man died at the scene, and his 16-year-old daughter was pronounced dead at a local hospital.

Three other members of the family remain hospitalized, including the teenage victim’s mother, who had to be freed from the rubble, Garcia said.

The newly reported victims raise the death toll in the severe weather outbreak to six, including deaths in McNairy and Obion counties in Tennessee and Cape Girardeau County, Missouri.

“We did have some tornadoes that hit McNairy County a few years ago,” Coulter said. “Those were fatal as well. So there are still parts of the county that are dealing with the aftermath of those and now this.”

More than 213,000 customers are without power across a broad swath of the central US, according to PowerOutage.us, as a strong line of storms rife with tornadoes marches east.

With more dangerous weather and flooding forecast Thursday, here’s a breakdown of customers without power as of 11:25 a.m. ET:

Separately, more than 114,000 customers have no electricity in Michigan after weekend ice storms.

Life-threatening flash flooding is ongoing in and around Nashville after hours of heavy rain have soaked the area.

Nashville is covered by two flash flood warnings and in both, the National Weather Service warns, “flash flooding has been ongoing and will continue due to additional rainfall this morning.”

The Nashville Fire Department says its crews are responding to multiple flood rescue requests following the overnight storms.

Nashville Fire Department

At least 2 to 4 inches of rain have soaked the city in the past six hours. The Nashville International Airport picked up more than 3 inches in that time, which is more than half of the typical rainfall it records in all of April.

The Nashville Fire Department is urging drivers to use caution, avoid flooded roads and be aware of downed trees.

Charles Vankirk sifted through the shredded remains of his daughter’s home in northeastern Arkansas this morning, hoping to find any personal items left after a line of storms rife with tornadoes swept through overnight.

Vankirk’s daughter, a mother of three, had left her house in Lake City to take refuge in a storm shelter before the worst of it hit, he told CNN’s Ryan Young in the small city about an hour’s drive northwest of Memphis.

When they returned after the storm, the house was no longer there.

Vankirk’s family is devastated, he said, but safe.

“Our heart dropped, because they could have been gone,” he said. “They could have been gone. They wouldn’t be with us today.”

Portions of the roof of an apartment complex are torn apart after a series of overnight tornadoes in Selmer, Tennessee.

Courtesy Justin West

Some residents in an apartment complex in southwestern Tennessee took shelter in their laundry rooms as tornadoes swept through the area overnight, one resident told CNN.

Justin West, who lives in the Selmer, Tennessee, complex, captured the damage as he and other residents walked through the area surveying the damage. West told CNN his apartment survived the storm but the units in the front of the complex “are almost gone.”

Debris is left scattered across the area near an apartment complex in Selmer, Tennessee, after a series of overnight tornadoes.

Courtesy Justin West

Piles of debris and wreckage can be seen as West walked throughout the complex on Thursday morning. Some cars sitting in the parking lot were destroyed and portions of the roof were torn apart.

“Most people took shelter in their laundry rooms inside of the apartments,” he said. The complex is less than a year old, as West says it opened in June.

Selmer is in southwestern Tennessee about 92 miles east of Memphis.

Watch as West walks through the apartment complex here:

Paul Floyd’s damaged home is seen in Selmer, Tennessee on Thursday.

WHBQ

A family in Selmer, Tennessee – which got the worst of the tornado outbreak – escaped unharmed but shaken after their home collapsed around them last night.

“We got in the hallway, and everything came down,” Paul Floyd told CNN affiliate WHBQ.

As daylight arrived Thursday morning, Floyd’s home had little left but crumbling brick and a twisted wrought iron railing. His front door remained precariously upright, tagged with spray paint from a search and rescue team that ensured no one was trapped inside.

“I just can’t believe we made it out. I mean, stuff was falling out of the ceiling, you know, you’re down on the floor,” Floyd said. “Three minutes. That’s all it took.”

Floyd’s family spent the sleepless night in a shelter at the local courthouse.

“We just left with the shirts on our back,” he told WHBQ.

Storms this morning have definitely lost a lot of the ferocity they had Wednesday and overnight, but the threat of damage is far from over.

A level 3 of 5 risk of severe thunderstorms is in place from far northeastern Texas to western Tennessee, while a level 2 of 5 risk spans around 1,500 miles of the United States, according to the Storm Prediction Center.

A few stronger thunderstorms may redevelop throughout the day in these areas, but a higher chance for storms that could bring tornadoes will start late this afternoon or early this evening.

Strong tornadoes – rated EF2 or greater – are possible, mainly in the level 3 of 5 risk area. And that’s the same area that was pummeled by storms and violent tornadoes last night. Any debris could quickly turn into dangerous projectiles if today’s storms produce additional tornadoes or powerful wind gusts.

Today isn’t the end of the storm threat either: Similar level 3 of 5 risk levels are in place for nearly the same region Friday and Saturday.

There are reports of damaged homes, blocked roads, and power outages after a tornado struck Senatobia, Mississippi, just south of Memphis overnight, Tate County emergency management director Jim Huestis tells CNN.

Officials are still working to determine the full scope of the damage caused by the storm, Huestis said.

A particularly dangerous situation tornado warning was issued for the Senatobia area around 1:00 a.m. local time.

CNN Weather

Nearly 300 tornado warnings have been issued across 15 states since Wednesday morning by the National Weather Service during the major tornado outbreak across the central US.

The bulk of the warnings came Wednesday evening and overnight in the Lower Mississippi Valley. It was one of the ten-busiest days for tornado warnings in both the Memphis and Paducah offices of the National Weather Service.

This year is off to an incredibly busy start with nearly 1,000 tornado warnings so far in 2025.

This is the second-most of any year up to this point, behind only 2008 (1024), according to a CNN analysis of NOAA data. The busy year comes amid damaging cuts to the workforce of NOAA and the National Weather Service that have left some critical offices understaffed.

At least four people are dead in the wake of an outbreak of severe storms and tornadoes.

One person died overnight Wednesday in Missouri due to the storms, officials said. The death happened in Cape Girardeau County in southeast Missouri, according to local emergency management director Sam Herndon.

The Missouri State Highway Patrol said it was investigating the death but had no additional information on the circumstances.

Three people were killed in Tennessee overnight, with deaths in Obion, Fayette and McNairy counties confirmed by state and local authorities.

Motorists travel through flood waters in Nashville on Thursday.

Andrew Nelles/The Tennessean/USA Today Network

More than 3.6 million people are under flash flood warnings in Tennessee and northern Mississippi this morning as the second day of a life-threatening flooding event begins.

“This isn’t routine. This is a rare, high-impact and potentially devastating event,” the National Weather Service in Memphis, Tennessee, warned Wednesday.

Yesterday marked the start of four days of rain for the region, with NWS forecasters emphasizing these possibly “generational rainfall amounts” could lead to “catastrophic flooding.”

“Extensive, rare, and at times catastrophic, flash flooding is likely… flash flood water levels may reach areas that rarely or have never flooded before,” forecasters at the NWS in Little Rock, Arkansas, said.

CNN Weather

A rare level 4 of 4 high risk of flooding rainfall is in place today for portions of the Mississippi and Ohio valleys where round after round of storms will drop heavy rain through Saturday. Another level 4 of 4 risk was recently issued for Saturday that encompasses nearly the exact same locations as today’s.

It’s hard to overstate just how significant level 4 of 4, high risk flooding events are. They are issued on fewer than 4% of days per year on average, but are responsible for 80% of all flood-related damage and 36% of all flood-related deaths, research from the WPC shows.

Some of the heaviest rain will occur overnight each night, making flooding more dangerous as it’s almost impossible to figure out exactly how serious it is in the dark.

By Saturday, areas caught repeatedly under the heaviest storms could end up with more than 15 inches of rain.